What influenced Iran’s provocative remarks about Afghanistan?


The final factor influencing Iran’s provocative remarks is the elephant in Rome, India.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzada made some provocative remarks about Afghanistan earlier this week. Tehran Times a highlighted my key remarks. Twitter thread., Which were as follows:

* “The ‘martyrdom’ of the Panjshir commanders is very disappointing. Iran strongly condemns last night’s attacks.

* “We are currently exploring the possibility of foreign intervention in the Panjshir attacks.”

* “Pakistan’s involvement in the Panjshir attacks is currently under investigation. Iran sees inter-Afghan dialogue as the only solution to the Afghan problem.”

* “I strongly warn that all red lines and responsibilities must be observed under international law. Iran is closely monitoring the developments in Afghanistan.

Afghan history shows that direct and indirect intervention will only defeat the invaders.

These harsh statements came after the “Panjshir Resistance” accused Pakistan of providing air and ground support to the Afghan Taliban, which was based on fake news shared by the Indian media.

Even more interestingly, the Taliban said just a day earlier that it wanted to establish relations with Iran, adding that “they need us and we need them.” ۔ ” In fact, the Taliban invited Iranian representatives to the announcement of their incoming cabinet on the same day that Mr. Khatibzada criticized the group and credited the fake news that it had received Pakistani military aid for its Panjshir operation. Is getting Obviously, these friendly gestures were not enough to stop Iran from complicating relations with the Taliban.

There are several factors influencing the Islamic Republic’s position on the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. Spreading first locally and then internationally, his government is under domestic pressure from Afghan refugees and even from some Iranians over Tehran’s already pragmatic stance on the Taliban. They see it as hypocritical because of the pre-existing tensions between the two and are concerned that the group could persecute Shia and Tajik minorities. Therefore, Tehran has domestic political selfishness in criticizing the Taliban’s Panjshir operation.

Based on this observation, Iran wants to maintain its influence in these minority groups. His silence during the closing phase of the Panjshir operation would be a major blow to his reputation. At the very least, Iran thought it had something to say (ie the testimony of its commanders) to signal that it was still on their side and that the Taliban “did not sell them” as some think. The interest is due to Iran’s use of Afghan territory with its 25-year-old strategic partners in China through the so-called “Persian Corridor” through this country and civilization similar to Tajikistan.

The issue of trade moves to the next element, and that is that Iran is worried about redirecting its Afghan trade to Pakistan, now that a friendly government with Islamabad is in power in Kabul. This may explain in part why Tehran deemed it appropriate to give credence to the false claims that Pakistan was participating in the Taliban’s Panjshir operation and that it could be guilty of violating international law. What Iran was claiming, in other words, could be a source of frustration for some Iranians over the expected improvement in Afghan-Pakistani economic relations.

The final factor influencing Iran’s provocative remarks is the saying in the room, India. Tehran and New Delhi are still close partners, despite some differences, which the latter wants to point out through their strong statements against the former Taliban and Pakistan. Iran wants to act as a partial proxy for India in Afghanistan because of its vested interests in Afghanistan in exchange for possible economic assistance. The Indian factor may not be the main factor influencing Iran’s behavior, but it is certainly the most volatile.

Iran has the right to make whatever political statements it wants, as all countries do, but what it has recently said about the Taliban and Pakistan certainly risks complicating relations with them. ۔ Words are one thing, actions are another, but both are probably hoping that Iran puts everything in the realm of rhetoric and backs up what its foreign ministry spokesman has said about them. Does not threaten to pursue any political action. If their hopes come true, everything will be fine in the end, but if Iran violates their expectations, things will inevitably get worse.

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